What Are Battleground States?
Battleground states, also called swing states, are states that either party could plausibly win in a presidential election. Because 48 states award all their electoral votes to the statewide winner, and most states lean reliably one way, the presidency usually comes down to a small group of battlegrounds. That’s where campaigns spend most of their time and money.
Where the term comes from
Merriam-Webster traces “battleground state” to an 1842 New Jersey newspaper, though the dictionary notes it may not have meant exactly what it does today. “Swing state” was the more common term for much of the 20th century. Today the two are used interchangeably, along with “toss-up,” which usually describes a race that forecasters rate as even.
What makes a state a battleground
- Recent margins. A state decided by about 5 points or less in the last election or two.
- Polling. Polling averages that show a close race.
- Campaign behavior. Where campaigns and their allies buy ads and send candidates is often the clearest signal.
- Trends. Shifts in population, demographics and down-ballot results can move a state toward or away from battleground status, usually over several elections.
The 2024 battlegrounds
In 2024, forecasters and both campaigns largely agreed on seven battlegrounds, with 93 electoral votes among them. Donald Trump carried all seven, six of which had voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
| State | Electoral votes | 2024 margin | 2020 margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 10 | Trump +0.9 | Biden +0.6 |
| Michigan | 15 | Trump +1.4 | Biden +2.8 |
| Pennsylvania | 19 | Trump +1.7 | Biden +1.2 |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump +2.2 | Biden +0.2 |
| Nevada | 6 | Trump +3.1 | Biden +2.4 |
| North Carolina | 16 | Trump +3.2 | Trump +1.3 |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump +5.5 | Biden +0.3 |
See the full results on our 2024 map and 2020 map.
Other states to watch
A few other states were close enough in 2024 to draw attention: Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by about 3 points and Minnesota by about 4. Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd District, each worth one electoral vote, are also regularly contested (see which states split their electoral votes).
The list changes slowly. Florida, Ohio and Iowa, once perennial battlegrounds, have moved firmly toward Republicans, while Colorado and Virginia have moved toward Democrats. Follow the current state of the race on our electoral map.