Our interactive presidential election map is currently based on the consensus of the following forecasts and polling data:
- Inside Elections, March 8, 2019
- Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, February 28, 2019
- Cook Political Report, January 9, 2019
- FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics general election polls, updated daily
To make your own forecast, click on the states to toggle them between Democrat, Republican and Tossup and watch the electoral map tallies change.
We’ll be updating this consensus map as more forecasts come in. Check back often or sign up for our mailing list.
It Takes 270 to Win
The winner of the presidential election must win the majority of the electoral votes — that is at least 270 out of the 538 available.
Because most states allocate their electoral votes on an “winner-take-all” basis — with the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which split their electoral votes differently — the candidate who wins enough states to reach 270 electoral votes becomes president.
There is actually one way to win the presidency without getting 270 electoral votes. If the election results in a 269 to 269 electoral vote tie, the House of Representatives chooses the president.
Rust Belt vs. Sun Belt?
The key to President Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election was that he carried three “Rust Belt” states that many expected Democrats to win: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He won these three states by less than a combined 80,000 votes, or just .06% of the 137 million votes cast. But that was enough to get Trump to 270 electoral votes.
It’s obvious from the electoral map that if Democrats can flip all three states back to their column in 2020, then they can win the election (assuming they hold all of the other states they won in 2016.)
But if Democrats lose all three states as they did in 2016, then they would need another path to the presidency. Some say Democrats could pursue a “Sun Belt” strategy and perhaps win Florida plus North Carolina, Arizona, Texas or Georgia. All of those states went to Trump in 2016, but there are indications they might be in play in 2020.
2020 Presidential Election News
Here are the latest headlines on the 2020 presidential race from Political Wire:
- Biden Campaign Launch Back In Flux
- Biden, Beto Falter In New Progressive Straw Poll
- Inside Biden’s Battle Plan
- Sanders Poll Shows Him Leading Trump In Key States
- Klobuchar Bets On Bipartisan Appeal
- Sanders Way Ahead In New Hampshire
- Biden Will Kick Off Campaign in Charlottesville
- Warren Proposes to Wipe Out Student Debt
- Young Voters Expect to Play a Bigger Role
- Buttigieg Scrambles to Turn Buzz Into Momentum
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