Democrat 222 · Republican 219 · Toss-up 97
The starting map is built from how each state has voted compared with the country as a whole, not from how a state voted on its own.
The last two presidential elections, with 2024 counting more than 2020.
Then we made a smaller adjustment for this year’s midterm races, measured against the size of the Democratic wave rather than against raw margins. I took a conservative approach with no state moving more than one category because of the 2026 results.
A state within 4 points of the national result is rated a Toss Up, 4 to 10 points is Lean, 10 to 14 is Likely, and more than 14 is Safe.
Of course, this is just a starting point. The ratings will change as candidates emerge and polling arrives.