Imagining the 2024 Electoral Map After Redistricting

The 2020 U.S. Census will lead to the reapportionment of congressional districts. Since each state receives electoral votes based on the size of their congressional delegations, that means the electoral map will almost certainly change for the 2024 presidential election.

An early estimate by Election Data Services based on 2018 population, finds that 13 states would be impacted by redistricting if it were done today.

States Gaining Seats: Texas would gain three seats and Florida would gain two seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon would each gain one seat.

States Losing Seats: New York would lose two seats, while Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia would each lose one seat.

These changes would be reflected in a new electoral map.

The 2024 Electoral Map

The interactive map below shows what the results of the 2016 presidential election would look like on this projected 2024 electoral map.

Republicans: Democrats: Tossup:

The bottom line: Donald Trump would have won three additional electoral votes using the new 2024 electoral map.

Caveats to This Analysis

These conclusions are based on population estimates from late 2018 and the actual U.S. Census will not be conducted until early 2020, so there may be additional changes that are not reflected here.

In addition, the methodologies used to estimate population shifts between the states may not be entirely correct.

And of course, it’s impossible to forecast the impact of any faithless electors on the projected electoral vote tally.