The United States will choose a new president in 2020, but we’ll also be getting a new Electoral College map after the 2020 census.
That’s because the next U.S. Census will lead to congressional apportionment.
The new electoral vote map will be first used in the 2024 presidential election.
Winners and Losers of the 2020 Census
While the census isn’t complete and this is just a projection, it’s already pretty clear which states will gain more clout and which will lose it.
A projected map recently released by Election Data Services shows that 10 states will probably to lose at least one House seat in the next congressional reapportionment. That means they’ll lose at least one electoral vote as well.
Of those states won by Republicans, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are likely to lose an electoral vote. Of those states won by Democrats in 2016, California, Illinois, Minnesota, New York and Rhode Island will all lose an electoral vote.
So who are the winners? Which states get the 10 electoral votes which will be reallocated?
There are five states which should each gain one electoral vote. Of the winners, Arizona, Montana and North Carolina went to Republicans in 2016 and Colorado and Oregon went to Democrats.
That’s a net gain of one electoral vote for Republicans.
But the five remaining electoral votes go to Florida and Texas, states won by Republicans in 2016. Florida would pick up two electoral votes while Texas would pick up three.
Add these up and the Republicans would win an even bigger victory in 2024 if the GOP candidate won the same states as Donald Trump won in 2016. The final tally would be 309 electoral votes for the Republican and 229 electoral votes for the Democrat.
These changes would be reflected in a new electoral map.
Here’s the Projected Electoral Map After the 2020 Census