In the 2016 presidential election, there were ten states where the margin of victory for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton was less than two percentage points. Combined, those states hold 125 electoral votes.
Although the early consensus forecast suggests fewer states are in play, this is almost certainly the battleground where the 2020 presidential race will be focused again.
Trump is defending six of these states — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina — which have a total of 101 electoral votes.
The Democratic candidate will be defending four of them — Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada — which have a total of 24 electoral votes. (Clinton actually won just 23 electoral votes in these states, since Maine splits its electoral votes and Trump carried the state’s 2nd congressional district.)
That would suggest Trump has the bigger challenge in 2020. Watching his approval rates in these states — along with head-to-head polling match-ups — will be critical.