| Donald Trump: | Democrat: | Tossup: |
A Hypothetical Electoral Tie
A Quinnipiac poll released on February 20, 2020 shows President Trump leading his possible Democratic rivals by 7 to 11 points in Wisconsin, but losing in Pennsylvania by 3 to 8 points and losing in Michigsan by 1 to 5 points.
Trump won all three states in the 2016 election.
If the other states from 2016 held and the eventual Democratic candidate were to flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nebraska’s 2nd District — but not Wisconsin — the election would end with a tied Electoral College, 269 to 269.
The interactive map above reflects this scenario.
Breaking the Tie
In the event of a tie, the presidential election is decided in the U.S. House of Representatives in a “contingent election,” with each state delegation having one vote. Whichever candidate can win the majority of states — or 26 of them — is elected president.
Quinnipiac Poll Results
This poll was released on February 20, 2020.
Wisconsin
- Trump tops Amy Klobuchar 50% to 39%
- Trump leads Elizabeth Warren 51% to 41%
- Trump beats Pete Buttigieg 49% to 41%
- Trump tops Michael Bloomberg 49% to 41%
- Trump defeats Bernie Sanders 50% to 43%
- Trump is ahead of Joe Biden 49% to 42%
Pennsylvania
- Biden is ahead of Trump 50% to 42%
- Klobuchar leads Trump 49% to 42%
- Bloomberg leads Trump 48% to 42%
- Sanders tops Trump 48% to 44%
- Buttigieg defeats Trump 47% to 43%
- Warren leads Trump 47% to 44%
Michigan
- Sanders beats Trump 48% to 43%
- Bloomberg leads Trump 47% to 42%
- Biden is ahead of Trump 47% to 43%
- Warren tops Trump 45% to 43%
- Buttigieg edges Trump 45% to 44%
- Klobuchar edges Trump 45% to 44%