How the 2020 Election Could End In an Electoral Tie

Donald Trump: Democrat: Tossup:

A Hypothetical Electoral Tie

A Quinnipiac poll released on February 20, 2020 shows President Trump leading his possible Democratic rivals by 7 to 11 points in Wisconsin, but losing in Pennsylvania by 3 to 8 points and losing in Michigsan by 1 to 5 points.

Trump won all three states in the 2016 election.

If the other states from 2016 held and the eventual Democratic candidate were to flip Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nebraska’s 2nd District — but not Wisconsin — the election would end with a tied Electoral College, 269 to 269.

The interactive map above reflects this scenario.

 

Breaking the Tie

In the event of a tie, the presidential election is decided in the U.S. House of Representatives in a “contingent election,” with each state delegation having one vote. Whichever candidate can win the majority of states — or 26 of them — is elected president.

 

Quinnipiac Poll Results

This poll was released on February 20, 2020.

Wisconsin

  • Trump tops Amy Klobuchar 50% to 39%
  • Trump leads Elizabeth Warren 51% to 41%
  • Trump beats Pete Buttigieg 49% to 41%
  • Trump tops Michael Bloomberg 49% to 41%
  • Trump defeats Bernie Sanders 50% to 43%
  • Trump is ahead of Joe Biden 49% to 42%

Pennsylvania

  • Biden is ahead of Trump 50% to 42%
  • Klobuchar leads Trump 49% to 42%
  • Bloomberg leads Trump 48% to 42%
  • Sanders tops Trump 48% to 44%
  • Buttigieg defeats Trump 47% to 43%
  • Warren leads Trump 47% to 44%

Michigan

  • Sanders beats Trump 48% to 43%
  • Bloomberg leads Trump 47% to 42%
  • Biden is ahead of Trump 47% to 43%
  • Warren tops Trump 45% to 43%
  • Buttigieg edges Trump 45% to 44%
  • Klobuchar edges Trump 45% to 44%