When we forecast the 2020 electoral map based on the 2018 midterm election results, it becomes very clear that President Trump must wage a two-front war to win re-election in a new set of 2020 battleground states: He must defend the Rust Belt states that sealed his victory in 2016, also defend against clear Republican erosion in the Sunbelt.
As former Clinton political director Doug Sosnik told Axios just after the 2018 elections: “Changing demographics and Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992.”
Sosnik projects that there could be more tossup states in the South and Southwest than in the Midwest — with almost twice the number of electoral votes at stake. He notes that the midterm elections also showed “that without Hillary atop the ticket, Midwest states like Wisconsin are tough for Trump, and Southern states with rising Hispanic populations are slowly growing more Democratic.”
The 2020 Battleground States
Below is an interactive version of the map presented by Sosnik, with red and blue states and the battleground states he identified in grey. You can use it as the basis for your own electoral college forecast.